Duarte Weather

000
FXUS66 KLOX 240514
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
914 PM PST Wed Jan 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...23/913 PM.

Periods of gusty offshore winds will continue through Thursday
across many mountain and valley areas and will be strongest during
the morning hours. Temperatures will gradually warm through the
week to above normal as conditions remain dry and sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...23/909 PM.

A blocking ridge of high pressure remains off the California coast
this evening, while a trough of low pressure is moving through
the Great Basin. This trough will brush the area to the east and
provide some upper-level support for gusty offshore winds the
next several days. A wind advisory has been issued for most of the
Los Angeles and Ventura County coast, valleys, and mountains
starting early Thursday morning and continuing through at least
mid-day Thursday. There is a decent chance that this advisory will
likely be extended through Friday, or reissued for Thursday night
and Friday. Locally gusty offshore winds are also possible in the
Santa Lucias tonight and into early Thursday morning with the
strongest winds likely below passes and canyons of the Southern
Coast Ranges.

Low-to-moderate confidence in at least patchy low clouds and
dense fog across the San Luis Obispo County Interior Valleys late
tonight and early Thursday morning. Model solutions and guidance
hints at dense fog developing for KPRB, but the areal coverage
could be greater.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overnight lows will be chilly in wind protected locations but
expected to be slightly warmer the next couple nights.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...23/213 PM.

Gradients start trending onshore Sunday as a trough starts to drop
south out of the Canadian Rockies so look for coast/valleys to
cool off a couple degrees, though remaining at least 3-6 degrees
above normal. The main cool down will be Monday with highs
dropping back into the 60s most areas with light onshore flow in
place.

Models still supporting a strong offshore gradient developing
Tuesday behind the trough passage. Both the GFS and ECMWF were
weaker than earlier runs but more so the GFS. The one big factor
lacking at least on the operational runs is upper support. Most of
the trough energy and cold air remain too far to the east so while
the surface gradient should still be enough to generate advisory
level winds the minimal upper support could keep it from being an
even bigger Santa Ana event. Gradients weaken quite a bit Wed so
it would mostly be a one day wind event.

&&

.AVIATION...23/2341Z.

At 23Z, there was no marine layer at KLAX.

VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a chance
of moderate wind shear and turbulence between 04Z and 15Z at
terminals north of Point Conception, and south of Point
Conception after 10Z. There is a chance of VLIFR to LIFR
conditions between 13Z and 17Z at KPRB.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
10 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after
10Z. Any east winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
20 percent chance of moderate wind shear and turbulence after
10Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/847 PM.

For the Outer Waters and Inner Waters north of Point Sal, fairly
high confidence in the forecast. Small Craft Advisory winds will
likely linger near Points Conception and Arguello through late
tonight. There is a 30 percent chance that this advisory could be
extended into Thursday morning. Otherwise, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. Across eastern portions of the
SBA Channel and the southern inner waters from Point Mugu to
Santa Monica, there is a 30 percent chance of Small Craft
Advisory level northeast winds Thursday, increasing to 40 percent
between Thursday night and Friday, and again Friday night and
Saturday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM to noon PST Thursday for
      zones 40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to noon PST Thursday for
      zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for
      zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Advisory level north to northeast winds will be possible night
and morning hours Sat for wind-prone areas of Ventura and Los
Angeles Counties. These areas may have advisory-level to possible
high wind warning level wind gusts Mon night into Tue.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Hall
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion